Broadcaster Blog: Could the Hogs Take the Third Seed in the Central Division?

The 2022-23 Calder Cup Playoffs are almost here! With the postseason looming, IceHogs broadcaster Mike Folta give us a peek at the IceHogs’ outlook for potentially grabbing the third seed in the Central Division and how it can be attained.

Setting the Stage

If the postseason started today, the IceHogs would hold the fifth and final playoff seat in the Central Division and would likely have to travel to the fourth-seeded Iowa Wild in a best-of-three series.

The AHL’s Playoff Primer is a great resource for visualizing the playoff race around the league. After Wednesday’s overtime win against the third-place Manitoba Moose, Rockford’s ‘magic number’ is now down to 14. A team’s magic number is a count of how many points are needed to clinch a playoff spot. The IceHogs’ magic number will decrease every time they pick up points, or the sixth team in the Central fails to pick up points. Once the magic number hits zero, abra ka dabra, you’re in the playoffs.

Iowa has been consistent as of late and has won seven of its last 10 games. The IceHogs and Wild are currently tied with 69 points each, but Iowa holds the tiebreaker with 21 regulation wins to Rockford’s 15. It will be a battle just to beat out the Wild for home-ice advantage in the First Round, but there is a possibility that the Hogs could not only jump ahead of Iowa, but potentially steal a First Round bye to improve their chances of a deep playoff run.

The determination of home games in the First Round is determined by seeding, travel, and building availability. With Des Moines just a four-hour bus ride away (factor in another 30 minutes for a stop at Iowa 80, “The World’s Largest Truck Stop”), it’s possible that the Wild would choose to play the first two games of the First Round at Wells Fargo Arena, meaning that the Hogs would have to win at least one road contest to secure a home atmosphere in Game 3. Iowa could also choose to start the series in Rockford and then play Games 2 and 3 in Des Moines, but we won’t know these details until the playoff field has been set.

**Note: If a team with a further travel distance like Manitoba or Texas held the four seed and Rockford the five seed, the IceHogs would likely play on the road for all three games of the First Round.

Importance of the Third Seed in the Central

While the fourth and fifth-seeded teams are fighting for their season in the First Round, the top three seeds get to sit back and enjoy a few days off. It’s no secret that jumping out of the First Round and into the top three spots of the Central Division would greatly increase Rockford’s odds of a deep playoff run. That’s not to say the Hogs can’t run the table and fight their way through the bracket as a four or five seed, but it would be significantly more difficult.

Need I remind everyone of last season? Arvid Soderblom stole the show for Rockford against Texas in the First Round by allowing just one goal on 70 shots through two games. After the IceHogs squeaked past the Stars with two one-goal victories in the opening round, Rockford got rolled by the eventual Calder Cup Champion Chicago Wolves in three straight games by the following scores: 6-2 (Game 1), 4-1 (Game 2), 4-1 (Game 3).

The IceHogs dominated the regular season series last year against Chicago with an 8-3-0-1 record against the Wolves. Even though Rockford had five days of rest between the end of the Texas series and the start of the Chicago series, a talented Wolves team was healthier and more rested in the Division Semifinals, and it made a noticeable difference.

The simple math of the Calder Cup Playoff bracket puts even more emphasis on the importance of avoiding the First Round. Say that the IceHogs have a 50% chance to win the First Round, and a 50% chance to win each subsequent round. That would mean the probability of Rockford making it to the Western Conference Finals is 12.5%. Take out the First Round, and the probability of making the Western Conference Finals jumps to 25%. A team who doesn’t have to play in the First Round is twice as likely to make the Conference Finals as one who does…at least that’s what a statistics class would tell you.

Last season, the first season in which 23 teams made it to the Calder Cup Playoffs, none of the teams that participated in the First Round reached the Conference Finals. Of five First Round winners that met a rested squad in the Division Semifinals last year, only one club advanced to the next round (Rochester). Of all the teams that saw action in the First Round, only two made it to the Division Finals…and both lost.

**Note: With seven teams granted postseason berths in the Pacific Division, six teams play in the First Round, but only the lowest remaining seed faces a rested team in the Division Semifinals.

So how do the Hogs get there?

Wednesday’s win was a good start for Rockford because Anders Sorensen’s group needs to be picking up points while Manitoba drops them. Entering tonight’s game, the IceHogs are six points behind the Moose who hold the third spot in the Central. Manitoba does have a game in hand on the IceHogs, which could play a major factor down the stretch.

Unfortunately for Rockford, Manitoba is still angling for the division title and is only four points away from top-seeded Texas. I say ‘unfortunately’ because the Moose still theoretically have plenty to play for. The Hogs are not chasing down an apathetic club who will be coasting into the postseason, but instead are hunting a moving target.

There are some rays of sunshine for the Hogs however.

TEAM COHESION

The IceHogs have now won three of their last four games and are starting to come alive as a group. David Gust, Brett Seney, and Luke Philp have all missed games over the past several weeks due to injury, call-up, or family matters. Now that all three are healthy and back in the IceHogs lineup, let’s sprinkle in some Rocco Grimaldi, who by the way is tied for fifth in league scoring with 62 points. Those four, who all play on Rockford’s top power play unit, have only skated together for three games and will continue to learn each other’s styles of play. Grimaldi himself has said as much at one of our media days.

In his first six games with the Hogs, Grimaldi has provided six points (2G, 4A) along with an overtime winner on Mar. 15 against Manitoba and a shootout winner on Wednesday against the Moose. His addition at the trade deadline cannot be understated, and the chemistry with his new teammates is building.

Ready for the least surprising stat ever? Turns out that Rockford is a better team when Gust, Seney, and Philp are in the lineup. When those three are all playing, the IceHogs are 21-12-2-2 this season for a .621 points percentage compared to their current record and points percentage of 30-23-5-4 and .556 respectively. It just so happens that a .621 points percentage would be the third best in the Central Division as we stand right now. Every team experiences call-ups, injuries, and the like, but the point remains that Rockford is capable of playing itself into the top three spots in the Central when it has its top guns in the lineup.

SCHEDULE AHEAD

After this week on the plains of Manitoba, the remaining schedule for the IceHogs is not particularly daunting. Only four of the remaining nine games after this week are against teams that are currently playoff bound. That’s not to say that any of these games should be taken lightly. Rockford is only 10-7-2-0 against teams outside the currently playoff picture, which tells us that the Hogs have left some meat on the bone when it comes to winning against ‘lesser’ opponents. Let’s take a look at what the end of the regular season has in store for Rockford:

Mar. 31 vs. Laval (6^th in North)

Apr. 1 @ Chicago (7^th in Central)

Apr. 2 vs. Grand Rapids (6^th Central)

Apr. 7 @ Milwaukee (2^nd Central)

Apr. 8 vs. Milwaukee (2nd Central)

Apr. 11 vs. Chicago (7^th Central)

Apr. 14 @ Grand Rapids (6^th Central)

Apr. 15 vs Manitoba (3^rd Central)

Apr. 16 @ Milwaukee (2^nd Central)

The scariest part about the remaining slate isn’t the opposition, it’s the travel. The Hogs will have to deal with two ‘three-in-threes’ to finish out the season, with plenty of back-and-forth on buses throughout both three-game weekends. It should be noted also that Laval is just outside the playoff window in the North Division and will be battling for a postseason spot in these last few weeks.

Let’s now take a look at third-place Manitoba’s remaining schedule after this week:

Mar. 26 vs. Laval (6^th North)

Mar. 29 vs. Laval (6^th North)

Mar. 30 vs. Abbotsford (3^rd Pacific)

Apr. 1 vs. Abbotsford (3^rd Pacific)

Apr. 6 vs. Grand Rapids (6^th Central)

Apr. 7 vs. Grand Rapids (6th Central)

Apr. 11 at Texas (1^st Central)

Apr. 12 at Texas (1^st Central)

Apr. 15 at Rockford (5^th Central)

Apr. 16 at Chicago (7^th Central)

Five of Manitoba’s remaining 10 games after this week will be against playoff-picture teams and two will be against a desperate Laval club.

Somewhere along the way, the IceHogs need to make up seven points on the Moose. It’s quite a hill to climb for Rockford, but not impossible. To earn the third seed, the two remaining matchups with Manitoba are almost must-wins, while the Hogs also have to take advantage of four matchups with Grand Rapids and Chicago.

Against its remaining schedule, Rockford is a combined 14-12-5-2 on the season. It’s a fairly unremarkable record, but I don’t think it would be wise to read too much into past data considering how many new pieces the IceHogs have after the trade deadline, especially Grimaldi.

INDIVIDUAL PLAY

We can say whatever we want about records and schedules, but ultimately, Rockford’s playoff push will come down to its players. Fortunately for the IceHogs, several players are performing at their best at this critical juncture of the season.

Arvid Soderblom

As the IceHogs’ PA announcer Jim Leo said on Twitter, “He’s not their vid, he’s ARRRRR vid”, and we’re sure glad he is. The Swedish backstop has won his last three starts and has guided the IceHogs to points in each of his last five appearances. Not only has Soderblom been kicking for Rockford down the final straightaway, he also consistently plays his best hockey in the crucial moments of a game. In overtime games this season, the 6-foot-3 netminder has stopped 41 of 44 shots for a .932 save percentage in the extra frame. Nobody told Arvid that the three-on-three format is supposed to encourage more scoring.

Soderblom has a 4-2 record in shootouts and a 4-3 record in OT this season. His four shootout wins rank second in the league behind Yaroslav Askarov’s five for Milwaukee. Since we mentioned Manitoba earlier, it’s fitting to note that Soderblom has topped the last 14 Moose shots through the last three overtimes between the teams.

With how much offense is loaded up in the Rockford lineup, the Hogs don’t need their goaltender to stand on his head every game, but Arvid Soderblom is certainly capable of doing so, and he's capable of driving this team into a First Round bye.

Luke Philp

In the eyes of many fans, Luke Philp has jumped from the ‘Under the Radar’ category to the ‘Captain, You’re Going to Want to See This’ category. Philp has consistently been a point-per-game player with Rockford this season, eating up big minutes in Sorensen’s top six. After a goal and an assist on Wednesday against Manitoba, the fourth-year pro has tied his career high with 44 points and set a new career high with 22 tucks. Philp’s best season prior to Rockford was last year with the Stockton Heat when he posted 44 points (21G, 23A) in 66 games. He has registered that same point total in just 50 games with the IceHogs. More than just a scorer, Philp protects the puck as well as anyone for Rockford and takes care of the defensive zone as well.

The Canmore, Alberta native has six points (4G, 2A) in his last four games with the Hogs and is tied for the team lead with nine power-play goals this season. On a relatively young IceHogs squad, it’s important to note Philp’s experience last season with a Stockton team that reached the Western Conference Finals before falling four games to two against David Gust’s Chicago Wolves. Philp registered a goal and four assists in 10 Calder Cup Playoff games last season with the Heat.

Philp's consistent play as of late and his connectivity with some of Rockford's top scorers will need to continue for the Hogs to make the jump past Manitoba into third place.

And finally…

Regardless of where the Hogs end up in the playoff bracket, it’s encouraging to know that this team is starting to come together at a critical time. It’s also encouraging that more help could be on the way. Lukas Reichel, Joey Anderson, Mike Hardman, Buddy Robinson, and Anton Khudobin are all with the Chicago Blackhawks and could be available for the postseason. Rookie Ryder Rolston is also with the team currently and is a few short weeks away from returning from a collarbone injury.

The IceHogs have proven to be a resilient group all season, as is proven by their eight third-period comeback wins and 15 overtime/shootout victories this season. Rockford will need all of that resiliency and more to jump up in the standings and secure the highest seed possible, starting tonight at Canada Life Centre against Manitoba.